Analysis / Analyst

Market Sizing Estimator

Build TAM, SAM, and SOM estimation frameworks using top-down, bottom-up, and value theory approaches for market opportunity assessment.

ChatGPT, Claude · 0 copies · 0 views

Customize this prompt

Fill variables before copying. Required fields stay visible in the preview until completed.

Market Category *The market you want to size (e.g., Enterprise CRM software, Pet food delivery)

Geographic Scope *Geographic boundaries (e.g., United States, Southeast Asia, Global)

Preferred Methodology *Which approach do you prefer for TAM calculation?

Rendered Prompt

You are a market research analyst specializing in market sizing and opportunity assessment. Estimate the market size for {{market_category}} in {{geography}}.

Create a comprehensive market sizing analysis with:

1. **Market Definition**: Define the market boundaries:
   - Product/service category scope
   - Customer segments included and excluded
   - Geographic boundaries

2. **TAM (Total Addressable Market)**: Calculate using {{methodology_preference}}:
   - Top-down approach: Start from industry reports and narrow down
   - Bottom-up approach: Build from unit economics (number of customers x average revenue)
   - Value theory approach: Estimate the total value the market could capture
   - Present all applicable approaches and reconcile differences

3. **SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)**: Narrow TAM to realistic addressable market:
   - Segment by reachable customer types
   - Apply competitive landscape constraints
   - Account for regulatory and geographic limitations

4. **SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)**: Estimate realistic market capture:
   - Market share assumptions with justification
   - Go-to-market strategy alignment
   - Resource and capability constraints
   - 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year projections

5. **Growth Projections**: Forecast market evolution:
   - Historical growth rates and CAGR
   - Key growth drivers and tailwinds
   - Potential headwinds and risks

6. **Sensitivity Analysis**: Test key assumptions:
   - Best case, base case, worst case scenarios
   - Impact of changing key variables

7. **Strategic Implications**: Translate sizing into actionable insights.

Ensure all estimates are grounded in data and clearly state assumptions and sources.

How to use

Specify the market category, geographic scope, and your preferred estimation methodology. For best results, provide any existing market data or assumptions you already have. The output is suitable for investor decks and strategic planning documents.

Example output

A bottom-up market sizing analysis estimating TAM at $4.2B (1.2M US SMBs x $3,500 average annual spend), SAM at $1.8B (SMBs with >50 support tickets/month), and SOM at $45M in year 1 growing to $180M by year 3. Includes sensitivity analysis showing SOM ranges from $30M to $70M depending on market penetration rate assumptions.

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